Walk the Lines of Your Opportunity Solution Tree

Another way to generate assumptions, particularly viability assumptions, is to use your opportunity solution tree to work backwards from your solution back to your outcome. You can start by generating assumptions using the following starters:

• This solution will address the target opportunity because…
• Addressing the target opportunity will drive the desired outcome because…

Be specific. Why will your solution address the target opportunity? Your answer will contain one or more assumptions that you’ll want to capture. For example, “Adding local channels will allow our subscribers to watch live sports” because “The sports that our subscribers want to watch are on local channels” because “Most of the major sports are on local channels” and “Our subscribers are more likely to want to watch major sports.” Each phrase in quotes is an assumption we can test.

Why does addressing the opportunity “I want to watch live sports” drive the outcome “Increase weekly viewer minutes”? “People will watch sports in addition to what they already watch.” “Even if people cut out other shows, sporting events are long, and their individual viewing sessions will be longer.” “If individual viewing sessions are longer, weekly viewing minutes will go up.”

Now if our desired outcome is a product outcome (as it should be), we might also need to test the assumptions connecting our product outcome to our business outcome to uncover viability assumptions. “People who watch more minutes are more likely to renew.” “The cost of adding local channels will be offset by the gain from more renewals.”

The goal is to capture the logical inferences behind why you think this solution will address your target opportunity in a way that drives your product outcomes and ultimately, your business outcome. Each inference is an assumption that you can test.