Working With Sets of Ideas

As we start assumption testing, we want to make sure that we carry forward the idea of comparing and contrasting our ideas against each other. It’s easy to overcommit to our favorite idea. Why do the work to test three ideas when the best idea looks so good? This is where we want to take a minute to remind ourselves of the cognitive biases we discussed in the previous chapter—confirmation bias and the escalation of commitment.

If we test only one idea at a time, confirmation bias will rear its ugly head. We’ll be more likely to notice the confirming evidence and miss the disconfirming evidence. Similarly, the more time we invest in a single idea, thanks to the escalation of commitment, the more likely we’ll be all-in, committing to the idea, even if it has flaws.

Instead, we want to systematically collect evidence about our assumptions underlying all three ideas. The more we learn about each idea, the more likely we are to compare and contrast the ideas against each other. This helps us make better decisions about which ideas are most promising. Remember—we are looking for a clear front runner.

As you read through the rest of this chapter, remember: We aren’t testing one idea at a time. We are testing assumptions from a set of ideas.